tastylive

if consumers and businesses start hunting for alternatives to supply pricing power for some of these big names like Micron and Sandisk may lose some shine

— tastylive

AMD, this is white hot. Uh this one hasn't broken down as badly. It is down over 5%. Yesterday was lifetime highs, but as I say, if we start to get serious about the selling, uh I'm I ain't covering it till we get down to this gap, which is a few zip codes away.

— tastylive

applied materials AMAT down almost 10%. I think I mentioned yesterday my daughter interning at AAT and all the men my age who've been lumbering around there for decades and finally have their day in the sun won't shut up about their stocks performance... almost entirely for that

— tastylive

Micron down almost 10 down almost uh well down about 9 10% over over 8%. Very clean break of the trend line. Very exciting to see that.

— tastylive

my view on Meta for lots of personal reasons born of personal experience is that they will ultimately fail in the AI um their AI efforts... this is a tacit admission that your AI efforts ain't working and uh we're going to start selling access.

— tastylive

another good retail short that's doing well that I've got is Costco, COST. Uh Costco is down um you know, not quite 1%, but it's having a nice bearish engulfing pattern today.

— tastylive

this gap here is when I've been really uh watching closely... my my thesis on this was short term as long as we can stay below that gap um the one or two bears still that exist uh will be okay. And so far so good.

— tastylive

Short baseline risk sentiment, so short call verticals in the Nasdaq via the Qs, S&P via the spy ETF

— tastylive, at 25:53

Short baseline risk sentiment, so short call verticals in the Nasdaq via the Qs, S&P via the spy ETF

— tastylive, at 25:53

84% drop, something like that. Um and it is priced now the same as it was last millennium.

— tastylive

an example of another short I've gotten in that realm is uh KLAC, KLAC. KLA-Tencor, this is down over 3%.

— tastylive

my dumb guess is that it'll fall... I'm short Micron but just a teeny little bit... if we can stay below that island reversal gap, then it could look pretty good on the downside

— tastylive

all I can say is that from a charting perspective, this is what we call...a uh island reversal gap. And um you know, uh provided it stays below that price line, it's um that that's a that's a that's a pretty serious uh uh setup for for reversal. So, um I don't think I have Micron

— tastylive, at 7:50

we continue to be in this sort of choppy range where yeah, we managed to swing higher within this chop over the past two days and then today we stall in very familiar territory right near the middle of this range where we continue to look for direction and struggle to find it...

— tastylive, at 0:30

The market is treating this as a massive positive. Meta is ripping off market open today. They love it. Personally, I see this as a bearish variable. Having too much compute capacity, spending too much on AI development, if this becomes a trend across the broader industry, these

— tastylive

one of these set it and forget it type stocks, it's very lofty right now, very expensive right now, and it could fall for years after this point, but if one's measuring their horizon in decades, it really doesn't matter

— tastylive

the cubes are up 2.44%... if you look at this, we're just grinding away in this range... for 5 days now, we've just been running in place... the test is this gap right here. What will happen at the gap?

— tastylive

one big instrument within semiconductors that was um roing the seas was Micron. Um we actually had a crack of this uptrend for the first time since it began this morning but it was very brief and um not too deeply penetrated. But you know a crack is a crack. We did get below it..

— tastylive

We peaked on this way back on June 3... we are below barely the price gap formed between last Monday and Tuesday... at the beginning of this month, we did snap below that and we've been kind of violently moving up and down since then without any really plain direction.

— tastylive

If Micron fails tonight to impress and they can't tell us that scarcity exists and they retain their pricing power, the entire sector is going to get whacked again given the recent news flow.

— tastylive, at 3:25

AMD as the number two chip company in the world clearly has a fantastic narrative going on around it right now. But, the valuations here are perhaps one of the reasons why when we see this cost of capital going up, two-year rates increasing, traders are starting to get a little w

— tastylive, at 0:00

I like the hedge like throwing on a downside hedge in AMD to play for Micron without the IV. I think that makes a lot of sense.

— tastylive

I I I never like selling earnings, but maybe this is one of those times I do. And maybe it's just an iron condor... maybe this is one of those times where it's it's worth going outside that expected move and maybe possibly selling something

— tastylive, at 17:28

Micron must validate its pricing power and scarcity in the market. If it does, semis can stabilize. If not, then we're looking at another leg lower for the entire sector.

— tastylive, at 0:00