Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.

I have put the S&P 500 at likely 1% zero or real negative return over the next 10 years.

— Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.

at these levels, there was a larger than 60% crash in real terms In the 1930s, in the 1970s, in the 2000s. Now, at these levels, the highest levels in history, it's not great to dollar cost average in the S&P 500. Actually, it is great if it crashes and you keep on doing it.

— Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.

If the S&P 500 goes nowhere over the next 10 years, given the valuations, it is very probable the 10-year Treasury will beat the market.

— Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.

If I had my money, any money in the S&P 500, I would be scared as hell... the potential as we discussed When people realize that the price cannot go on up forever like in Japan, you're looking for 80% crashes... It will likely happen in the next 5 to 10 years. So it might not hap

— Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.

the S&P 500 dividend yield currently at 1.1 is now the lowest in history. Even lower from the peak of the dot bubble in August 2000... when it comes to markets the key factor for determining whether this is a bubble is that we are in a no risk environment. The best scenario the g

— Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.

This is the market. Now really great performance 14% per year. This is actually the best eight years in the market's history... if we look at the current P ratio of the S&P 500... 25% of the current SAP 500 situation is from valuation expansion... the real fundamental yield is 2%

— Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.

Yes, there is potential upside. There is certainly potential downside. Therefore, not something for the value investor.

— Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.

I still think this is a bubble, a way bigger bubble than it was.

— Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D., at 0:00

Looking long term it's Alibaba. You can buy it on the cheap. It's the Mercado Libre of China is the Amazon of China. So very interesting position, but the environment is what it is highly competitive.

— Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.

I'm out from Alibaba from my model portfolio because it turned from a fundamental perspective dividend buybacks cash flows from e-commerce to an AI bet... earnings per share are down cash flows are down the balance sheet is still extremely strong still everything looks good the

I have it at five six% long-term return. The P ratio is not 27 as we discussed, it's 40... I am pushing it from here to more risky, more in the AI bubble because the price simply went up.

— Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.

Google is Google. We thought it will be disrupted by AI. It is getting even stronger. So that's very interesting. I wish I knew the answer.

Intel is still not a profitable company. And that holds for most companies out there these days.

— Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.

Intel, my friends, is not profitable on the same accounting standards that were holding just three years ago.

— Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.

We discussed Microsoft recently and they're also much better pricing compared to many others for Microsoft. But keep in mind it is on exuberant growth rates going forward. If I lower the growth rate for margin of safety, lower the PE, the downside is still 60 70%.

— Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.

if you have nothing better you say okay on average I can work on the ups and downs if you buy 3% now you get 10% per year if it goes lower to the margin of safety you double your position then I think Yes, Microsoft is a buy, but that's why I put it on the quadrant.

If it grows at 15%, then you can expect a 3x, 4x, 5x from the stock. In the worst of the worst-case scenario, there is still plenty of downside. If earnings deteriorate, then the buybacks made at higher prices don't look that good.

— Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.

Birkshshire 7% long-term compounding return on invested capital. Bum bum bum. All good... somebody doing 7 five 7% for the next 10 15 years would be very happy because as I said this party cannot go on forever.

— Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.

I would look into Salesforce if there is such a buy that even if AI impacts it it doesn't matter and that even if there is a recession perhaps even better if we are in the midst of a recession at that level then my downside is limited and all then what's left is upside

— Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.

Mercado Libre just ticking up a little bit. It will depend on the growth going forward as we discussed in the analysis for now. Looks good bottoming out. So another interesting situation to follow.

— Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.

fairly priced for 9% return... Not bad. Perhaps not stellar but not great.

— Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.

PayPal issues, take rates, feurf, legacy issues, short-term, long-term very high cash flows... PayPal is just at 15% cash flows.

— Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.

after 15 years of all the promises of all it's still a loss total making company... It's just a cult, great electric cars, everything. But there is a problem. Yes, you can make a car. So can others and likely you taught them how to make it faster and even better and then you have

— Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D., at 0:00